Skill Versus Luck In Backgammon
Written by redtopbg.com
Is backgammon 5% luck? 10% luck? 90% luck. To me, that's like asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. But I will say this, with 100% certainty:
Take two players, B and W, where B is a better player and W is a worse player.
B will win more than 50% of the 3-point matches against W.
If B wins x% of his 3-point matches against W, he will win y% of his 5-point matches, and y will be greater than x.
If B wins y% of his 5-point matches against W, he will win z% of his 7-point matches, and z will be greater than y.
And so on.
B will probably also win more than 50% of his one-point matches against W, and this percentage will probably be less than x%, but it's possible this could be untrue if there is a great difference between the player's checker play and cube skills.
What are reasonable values for these percentages? Well, it depends on the difference in skill between B and W. I'm not going to try to quantify the difference. But I am as sure of the above statement, and that 100% of all top-level backgammon players would agree with it, as I am that the sun will rise tomorrow.
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